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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.